With so many demands on the public purse, only an ambidextrous octopus could juggle all the figures to give everyone what they want in Budget 2017.
After six years of wage stagnation and cuts, there are inflated expectations which will have to be managed.
The first thing Finance Minister Michael Noonan has to do is to see off the requests from the alien fiscal space invaders whose demands are out of this world.
In truth, and providing he keeps his feet on the ground, this should be a straightforward enough Budget, because its substance was already broadly agreed under the confidence and supply arrangement.
That said, Fianna Fáil needs some victories, and mooted plans to push possible pension increases as far out as next July simply won't wash; a compromise will have to be agreed.
Mr Noonan has to keep things simple, and given the uncertain international picture, he would be very unwise to be anything but prudent. To his credit he has put in a solid six years, doing a good job in trying circumstances.
He must continue to stick within the parameters that the economy can afford. Some time back, a package of €1bn was agreed upon to be broken down between reductions in the USC and other tax cuts and increases in targeted expenditure in health and other vital services.
We must not forget that we are still running a deficit of €2bn. The Government must keep it tight, with a two-to-one split on expenditure and tax cuts.
The 'help to buy' tax relief for young new home buyers sounds innovative. The €10,000 to €20,000 relief would be very welcome, but it has to be seen in a context where only 2pc of new houses are bought by first-time buyers, therefore only a select few are likely to benefit.
At home, things are definitely better and the fact that unemployment is below 8pc is significant, but there is still a long road to go and trying to go a bit of it with everybody in the Budget, like an over-friendly Wicklow collie, would be a costly mistake.
Not so long ago we were lectured on the follies of 'leprechaun economics'; eye-watering growth figures of 26pc made us look a bit foolish. But the real lunacy lies with Eurostat, which allows for the transfer of profits and revenues classed as "intellectual property rights" to be included in a nation's Gross Domestic Product figures. Never mind the fact that the bulk of the income might accrue from sales and manufacturing in China. Thus balance sheets can balloon by several billion and the statisticians have very little hope of seeing it coming. Eurostat needs to sort this out.
While things are improving, there are threats.
This week we got a warning from the IMF that the global economic picture is one of stagnation, and they also pointed to record world debt of $152 trillion. This is twice the size of the global economy.
The debt has rocketed on the back of historically low interest rates intended to stimulate economies. The irony is that it has the potential to cripple them if levels are not reduced.
Ten years ago we were sorely exposed because of an over-reliance on property taxes. When values crashed and construction ceased, revenue fell massively short.
Today we are enormously dependent on Foreign Direct Investment and on the corporation tax from multinationals. Any wobble globally could have a destabilising impact on finances so we must be wary of such risks.
And despite the jubilation across the water at the Tory conference about "business as usual in post-Brexit Britain", do not be fooled. The full scenario has yet to play out. As things stand, the EU is still calling the shots. The doomsday predictions were all based on what might happen after Article 50 was triggered and the European stabilisers were taken off the bike. Only then will we know the full story, and precisely how we, and indeed Britain, will be affected.
In other times we had Budget surpluses, balanced books and a pension reserve fund at our backs. We used these to spend on infrastructure and boost employment.
Today we do not have such comfort blankets. The international cross winds are unpredictable and will have to be negotiated. However, the barometer is also registering an alarming build-up of pressure on the home front, which must also be handled if a perfect industrial storm is to be avoided.
As already mentioned, the austerity years required sacrifice and perseverance. Not only did taxes rise, but many also suffered pay cuts and their working conditions also changed as greater demands were made.
Now at the first sight of recovery, there is an understandable clamour to make things right.
The concern is that an industrial guerrilla war could break out with one set of workers fighting their cause at a time. There will be a competition for one to be more militant than the next and the collateral damage will be unquantifiable. Much of the discontent is in the public sector, but this must not degenerate into a 'them and us' confrontation.
The 300,000 public sector workers are nurses, teachers and civil servants who do vital work.
Grievances have to be addressed collectively and some mechanism to manage the growing crisis has to be set in place before breaking point is reached. We have had a rough passage since Brian Lenihan and then Michael Noonan handed out the first hairshirts.
It may have been uncomfortable, but we have come a long way and it is important that we maintain the progress.
Irish Independent
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