Nothing to see here. Move on. On the face of it today's poll doesn't look very interesting. That should reassure us rather than bore us. Surprising polls are the polls we shouldn't trust. If there's a surprise it usually means that the polls is an outlier - the type you get every now and again that is plain wrong.
Today's Sunday Independent/ Kantar Millward Brown poll reflects the trends that we've seen in most of the recent polls published. In these, as we see today, Fianna Fail and Fine Gael are vying for top spot. They're close together, each between 25pc and 30pc, and on the basis of this poll together comfortably command a majority in the country.
Fine Gael will be relieved that its support is holding up after the budget. This is the first poll that measures the impact of the Budget. It wasn't a budget designed to 'shock and awe', it was a 'something for everyone' Budget. There were awkward moments about the authorship of the Budget. At times Michael Noonan and Michael McGrath gave the impression of secret lovers caught in an illicit embrace - though Noonan was only too happy to declare the relationship. Fianna Fail took some credit, but didn't want to get too associated. Sinn Fein was anxious to paint the two 'establishment' parties as brothers-in-arms. So there were dangers for both the main parties, but especially Fianna Fail. It survived that test.
This will relieve the troops in Fianna Fail, and it makes the prospect of an early election less likely - but still not remote. Fianna Fail has committed to three budgets, but they probably feel if they can deliver two they'll be seen to have upheld their part of the bargain. The voters also see more government stability. Almost 40pc expect it to last 18 months to two years, compared to 30pc in June.
Whether it lasts depends on changes to the status quo. If there is a major shift in the polls, that would destabilise things. What today's poll confirms is that support is firming up behind Fine Gael and Fianna Fail. That should mean there's less threat to the Government.
That firming up of support is also important for the other big source of instability to the Government: party leadership. This poll shows that most people want Enda Kenny and Gerry Adams to stand aside. This doesn't really matter. 'Most people' don't get to decide. The parties get to decide, and even though only 24pc of voters say they want Kenny to stay on, it is double that among Fine Gael supporters.
Today's poll shows that Leo Varadkar is still clearly the more favoured alternative leader. That will make Simon Coveney wary of organising a leadership heave - and Coveney's memories of heaves aren't happy ones. Varadkar too might be happy to stay the course, reassured that when Kenny goes he remains in pole position. To make a move against Kenny now might be interpreted as disloyalty to the party.
But the key factor in whether Kenny will go is what would happen afterwards. Unless a deal is done with Kenny to remain as Taoiseach, a new leader means a new vote for Taoiseach. That means getting Fianna Fail's tacit approval - it will have to abstain on that vote.
Fianna Fail is happy with Kenny, but it doesn't want Coveney or Varadkar. Micheal Martin's personal ambition must be to be the next Taoiseach. The office of Taoiseach offers great prestige and authority. Would Martin really want to hand Fine Gael that advantage by electing either man, both younger than him, as Taoiseach? It's unlikely, and so a change in leader could mean a general election. That uncertainty is Enda Kenny's friend.
The other take-home point from the poll is that we continue to see a fragmented left. Sinn Fein's support is steady, and above what it got in the General eElection. But Sinn Fein always does better in polls than it does in elections. Labour might have hoped that it would see a recovery now that it's out of power. There is no sign yet of that recovery. It is also frustrated at how little attention it gets - it's taking time adjusting from being a pretty big government party, to just another small party.
Labour might take solace from Fianna Fail's experience. It stayed stubbornly around 20pc for years, but 2015 saw it recover significantly, with its election performance taking many of us by surprise. It took time but the poll reveals Fianna Fail is now the least 'toxic' of all the parties - more people would consider voting for it than any other party. Labour's support may not be rising, but far fewer would not consider voting for it now than last February. That might seem like a negative way to approach things, but it means the party is more open to transfers; those five or six seats that Labour was competing for in later counts at the election would likely fall Labour's way now.
It will hope that it can pick up support from the other small moderate left parties. The Greens are still barely registering, and can only hope that good candidates will work hard on the ground to make the party competitive in more constituencies. The Social Democrats might well be on a death march. The election was not good for it. Though many people liked the party, it didn't perform outside those places where it had a TD. Now Donnelly has gone, it has less appeal, and the SocDems must be wondering whether they have a future.
The Left's poor support points to a problem with many of these parties. They might have fancy websites, articulate leaders and even good policies, but they lack any organisation. When Fianna Fail was being set up the founders travelled the country and spent years building branches. Sinn Fein has put in this hard slog, but the others don't seem to want to. Unless they do, as today's Sunday Independent poll show, there will be no breakthrough.
Sunday Independent
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