This week's Budget was the third in a row in which the public purse strings were loosened. Budget 2017 also joins its immediate predecessors in having a last minute ramping up of the amounts splashed in new spending and tax cuts.
Fiscally, plus ca change.
More positively, that the Government has been in a position to do this very much coincides with the changed fortunes of the economy. The long recession/depression hit its low point in 2012. Since then, almost every indicator of economic health and activity has been on the up.
And, as of now, there should be enough momentum in the economy to drive growth into the new year.
This is reflected in the Government's assumptions about how the economy will perform next year. Most of its economic predictions are sound enough, if too rosy.
Most notably in that regard, the forecasters in the Department of Finance are pencilling in jobs growth next year, well in excess of what other organisations - from the ESRI in Dublin to the IMF in Washington - are predicting.
But even if we are not out of the woods (more of which anon) there is little doubt that fortune has smiled on the Irish economy over the past four years. This is to be seen in how much the State has been taking in.
This year the Department of Finance estimates that all income sources - tax and non-tax revenues - will generate €72bn. That, as it happens, tops the previous record intake in 2007 at the height of the property frenzy.
That this much cash is being raised despite 150,000 fewer people working compared with eight years ago, while the country's population is up by 300,000 over the same period, shows how the burden of running the State has become more heavily focused on a smaller number of citizens.
But it is not only the burden of taxation that is an issue; there is some reason to be concerned about the trend.
Last year, the State's coffers swelled by 7pc, in large part thanks to a huge surge in profit taxes. There has been no such surge this year. As a result, total revenue growth will come in at 2-3pc. That is not a boom-time rate of increase.
Despite the Government's own forecasts pointing to a slower rate of expansion for the economy next year, Michael Noonan's people have pencilled in an acceleration in revenue growth, albeit a modest one.
That looks a bit odd but is in keeping with the hope-for-the-best approach of Budget 2017.
Modest revenue growth has not stopped the Government from planning an increase in public spending of €2bn next year, compared with this year's total spend.
Because of the complicated ways governments often present their sums, the breakdown of how this extra €2bn was divvied out got less attention than it should have.
The public pay bill will rise next year by €850m compared with this year, equivalent to 42pc of the total spending increase.
That is by far the largest share of the pie. It will bring the total pay bill to over €20.5bn, only €700m below the 2008 peak.
And as if that wasn't eye-catching enough, when one considers that there are now around 30,000 fewer people employed across the public sector compared with 2008, average gross pay this year has already surpassed the bubble-era peak of 2008.
The €850m increase in the Government's pay bill next year, flagged in Tuesday's Budget, will amount to €2,500 per person in the public sector, pushing average pay well above the previous record (as of the middle of this year there were 336,500 people at work in the public sector, excluding semi-state companies, according to the CSO).
The basic arithmetic of the public pay bill and the numbers employed shows that 'restoration' of bubble-era pay levels has already happened, and it has happened within the context of the Lansdowne Road agreement, which was supposed to contain pay growth.
Pointing to these facts will rile those who prefer to keep pay matters opaque and under wraps. Pointing to the wider picture of the still-precarious nature of the public finances will be almost as unwelcome to those who want to believe that it is time to start splashing (borrowed) cash again.
Despite lots of talk among politicians about who should take "credit" for the measures contained in the Budget, it should be remembered that this year the State will spend around €500 more for every man, woman and child in the country than it takes in.
Budget 2017 plans yet another year in the red, with spending per person slated to exceed revenue by €250.
With the total public debt standing at above €200bn - or €100,000 for every person employed in the economy - it is plain just how indebted the State is (and that is before we even consider that per capita private debt levels are still among the highest in the world).
Given that we are now in the fourth year of solid recovery, the fact the State's books are not yet balanced and that public debt is still rising means there will be no fiscal leeway if the economy slows down.
If even a mild recession were to take place, it would be straight back to austerity.
Could either of those eventualities come to pass? Of course they could.
The British pound is in freefall. In the first seven months of this year, Irish exporters earned 8pc less from sales to the UK as a result.
The Sterling exchange rate is now so bad from an exporter point of view that some companies will have to lay off workers. Others face going to the wall.
And Brexit-related risk is only one of the many risks the Irish economy faces now. Next year is likely to be a year of hoping for the best.
Irish Independent
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