Tuesday, December 27, 2016

Trump's win was unusual, but not historic. Save that title for Jackson, McKinley and Roosevelt

Franklin D Roosevelt’s election changed the face of American politics for a generation. Photo: PA
Franklin D Roosevelt’s election changed the face of American politics for a generation. Photo: PA

Donald Trump's aides, understanding their leader, vie to be most ostentatious about calling his victory "historic". That claim deserves close inspection.

Certainly, Mr Trump's rise to the White House was unusual and surprising, even if only because it produced the least politically experienced and probably least qualified president in American history. It could also have lasting consequences: the shape of the Supreme Court, prospects for war or peace, the shredding of regulations and the social safety net.

But the truly historic elections reshape or realign US politics. There are many reasons to believe that 2016 isn't one of them. Generally, political historians believe there were three clear realigning elections. The first was in 1828, when Andrew Jackson mobilised populist passions, moved the centre of power westward and ushered in an age of expansionism. Then, in 1896, William McKinley refined the coalition of business and successful farmers that kept Republicans in power for 28 of the next 36 years. In 1932, Franklin D Roosevelt's New Deal forged a Democratic Party coalition that also ruled for 28 of 36 years.

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