Tuesday, November 8, 2016

Republicans on track to keep House control - but historic majority may be gone

Supporters of Donald Trump cheer the GOP presidential nominee at a campaign rally in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Photo: Getty
Supporters of Donald Trump cheer the GOP presidential nominee at a campaign rally in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Photo: Getty

Republicans seem on track to secure two more years of House control in the elections but with erosion of their historic majority.

With Donald Trump rousing opposition in many suburban and ethnically diverse districts, Democrats were hoping to gain a dozen seats or more. Chief targets included Republican incumbents in Virginia, New Jersey, Illinois, Florida, Nevada and California.

But both sides anticipated that Democrats would fall short of the 30-seat increase they would need to take command of the House for the first time in six years. Democrats have gained that many seats in just five of the 35 elections since the Second World War including only once - in 2006 - since the 1970s.

One prized scalp would be eight-term Rep Darrell Issa, who dogged President Barack Obama with probes into the 2012 killings of four Americans in Benghazi, Libya, and IRS mistreatment of conservative groups.

Another would be Rep Scott Garrett, from New York City's suburbs, under fire for reports he had objected to contributing money for gay Republican congressional candidates.

Some Republicans are preparing "to do everything they can to stop progress in Washington," Mr Obama said in one late radio ad.

Donald Trump holds as child dressed as him during a rally at Mohegan Sun Arena in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania. Photo: Getty Images
Donald Trump holds as child dressed as him during a rally at Mohegan Sun Arena in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania. Photo: Getty Images

House Speaker Paul Ryan, was touting his "Better Way" agenda on revamping the tax code and welfare programmes and dismantling Mr Obama's health care law for next year. In a final fundraising email, he called it "our responsibility as conservatives" to maintain Republican House control.

Mr Trump's impact on House races seemed patchy and in some districts was counter-balanced by Republican antipathy to Hillary Clinton, Mr Trump's Democratic rival for president.

Republicans were aiming for Democratic-held seats north of Miami and in northern Minnesota and Omaha, Nebraska, and were strongly defending others that once seemed vulnerable in New York, Iowa and Wisconsin.

The Republicans' current 247-188 margin, which includes three vacancies, is a high water mark for House Republicans since the 270 members they had in 1931. Only several dozen of the chamber's seats were considered competitive.

Both parties' candidates and outside groups spent nearly 1.1 billion US dollars combined on House campaigns, shy of the $1.2 billion dollars record in 2012, according to the Centre for Responsive Politics, a non-partisan research group. Republicans had only a slight financial edge.

Since Mr Ryan ascended to the top House job last autumn, the chamber has approved measures addressing anti-drug programmes, customs law enforcement, financial relief for Puerto Rico and the Zika virus. But even with the Republicans' formidable advantage, work has stalled on spending bills after hitting objections from conservatives, including the roughly 40 members of the hard-right Freedom Caucus.

Donald Trump is claiming criticism from senior figures in the Republican Party like Paul Ryan is holding him back electorally (AP Photo/ Evan Vucci)
Donald Trump is claiming criticism from senior figures in the Republican Party like Paul Ryan is holding him back electorally (AP Photo/ Evan Vucci)

With moderate Republican lawmakers likely to be among Tuesday's election losers, dissident Republicans' leverage is expected to grow next year. That suggests tougher problems ahead for Republican leaders, with conservative objections likely over a fresh round of budget legislation plus the need to renew the government's borrowing authority or face an economy-jarring federal default.

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A thinner Republican majority could also strengthen conservatives demanding the impeachment of a newly elected President Clinton. Mr Ryan has yet to address that issue directly.

Even Mr Ryan, who has said he wants to be speaker in the new Congress, is not immune to ire from the Freedom Caucus and other Republicans upset over his refusal to campaign for Mr Trump.

If the republican margin is whittled significantly, just a handful of disgruntled conservatives could block Mr Ryan from the 218 votes he would need to retain his post. That could be an embarrassing setback for the Republicans' 2012 vice presidential candidate, who may harbour future White House aspirations, and some Republicans say it might persuade the 46-year-old Mr Ryan to leave Congress.

Ivanka Trump
Ivanka Trump

The year began with Democrats rubbing their hands over the prospects that Mr Trump atop the GOP ticket would produce widespread losses for House Republicans.

But many Republicans distanced themselves from Mr Trump and stressed their own issues, with some party ads explicitly disavowing him. Other spots linked Democratic hopefuls to Mrs Clinton or House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi.

Bobble head figurines of Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton greet Republican party supporters registering to watch a presidential debate watch party hosted by the Colorado Republican Party at Choppers Sports Grill in Denver, Colorado, Photo Jason Connolly/AFP/Getty Images
Bobble head figurines of Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton greet Republican party supporters registering to watch a presidential debate watch party hosted by the Colorado Republican Party at Choppers Sports Grill in Denver, Colorado, Photo Jason Connolly/AFP/Getty Images

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